CN104008271A - Novel safety accident scientific forecasting technical method and evaluation mode - Google Patents

Novel safety accident scientific forecasting technical method and evaluation mode Download PDF

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Publication number
CN104008271A
CN104008271A CN201410175958.4A CN201410175958A CN104008271A CN 104008271 A CN104008271 A CN 104008271A CN 201410175958 A CN201410175958 A CN 201410175958A CN 104008271 A CN104008271 A CN 104008271A
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probability
safety
scientific
security incident
north
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CN201410175958.4A
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Chinese (zh)
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王洪刚
王位
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王洪刚
王位
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Priority to CN201410175958.4A priority Critical patent/CN104008271A/en
Publication of CN104008271A publication Critical patent/CN104008271A/en
Pending legal-status Critical Current

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Abstract

The invention relates to a novel safety accident scientific forecasting technical method and an evaluation mode and belongs to the technical field of safety management. In a production environment region in a certain range, by means of statistical analysis of distribution conditions of safety accidents occurring in a certain period and relevant knowledge of discrete distribution of advanced mathematics, an occurrence probability of safety accidents to occur in the next production period is scientifically forecasted, and an evaluation mode is established. In other words, times, time and focal areas of the safety accidents to occur in the next production period can be clearly forecasted, and if safety management work is greatly improved, the highest probability of the range of controlling times of the safety accidents can be forecasted. By means of the novel safety accident scientific forecasting technical method and the evaluation mode, scientific establishment of focal areas and directions of safety management work is facilitated for users; before the safety management manners are not greatly improved, the technical method is capable of forecasting prediction results in a first probability mode according to verifications; the digitized management is achieved, and the scientific technical method is effective and practical rather than fortune-telling.

Description

Security incident scientific forecasting state-of-the-art technology method and evaluation model
Technical field: be subordinated to safety management technology field.In the production environment region of certain limit, imminent security incident can be carried out scientific forecasting probability of happening over a period to come, and sets up evaluation model.By this state-of-the-art technology method and evaluation model, can help us to establish key area and the direction of management of safe operation.If do not had before major improvement in safety management methods, this technology is by verifying all the first probability hit predicted result, science practicality.
Background technology: security incident be random, but have certain discrete regularity of distribution.Author does not find the content of this respect in national registration safety engineer teaching material.The problem that this technical method solves is: the probability that the next production cycle of prediction, several security incidents occurred is the highest, future how long in the probability of generation security incident the highest, which region emphasis is distributed in.This is significant for the main direction of determining trouble free service.The technical know-how that scientific forecasting uses mainly contains:
1. the proof of constant e: limit lim (1+1/x) x; In the time of level off to+∞ of x, this functional expression equals constant e, and its primary proof is utilized binomial theorem (a+b) nexpansion, can prove: limit lim (1+1/x) x; In the time of level off to+∞ of x, the ultimate value of this function equals 2 and is less than 3 simultaneously.Refer to the relevant teaching material of elementary mathematics.
2. higher mathematics discrete probability distribution knowledge, the probability analysis that random occurrence occurs.Refer to the relevant example of higher mathematics teaching material discrete probability distribution knowledge.
Summary of the invention: security incident scientific forecasting state-of-the-art technology method invention (security incident scientific forecasting technical method), microcomputer data processing design invention (Excel automatic data processing generates table, provides by E-mail), safety management assessment of levels pattern invention (evaluation model analytical table)
 
The security incident probability of happening science forecast in 2005 of the full special steel in north
To the north of full special steel 57 safe industrial accidents in 2004 be sample, the full special steel safe industrial accident probability of happening in 2005 in north is carried out to science forecast.
The security incident probability of happening measuring and calculating in 2005 of the full special steel in north
According to results of measuring, the power of safe industrial accident forecast probability of happening in 2005 is summarized as follows:
The full special steel security incident probability of happening evaluation table in 2005 in north
Can find out from analysis result: that condition of work is identical, monthly there is the possibility maximum of 4 safe industrial accidents in the full special steel in north, the possibility that occurs 5 is taken second place, and the possibility that occurs 3 is taken second place again ... there is not the possibility minimum of safe industrial accident.
On 01 03rd, 2005
The security incident probability of happening science forecast in 2006 of the full special steel in north
To the north of existing, full special steel 44 security incidents in 2005 are sample, and the present is carried out science forecast to the full special steel safe industrial accident probability of happening in 2006 in north.
The security incident probability of happening measuring and calculating in 2006 of the full special steel in north
According to results of measuring, the power of security incident forecast probability of happening in 2006 is summarized as follows:
The full special steel security incident probability of happening evaluation table in 2006 in north
Can find out from analysis result: that condition of work is identical, in monthly, 2006 there is the possibility maximum of 3 safe industrial accidents in the full special steel in north, the possibility that occurs 4 is taken second place, and the possibility that occurs 2 is taken second place again ... there is the possibility minimum of 10 above safe industrial accidents.Owing to being subject to the seasonal feature of building trade, safe industrial accident probability of happening should be more a little than the height of reality forecast.
On 01 03rd, 2006
The security incident probability of happening science forecast in 2007 of the full special steel in north
To the north of full special steel 44 safe industrial accidents in 44,2006 in 2004 57,2005 be sample, safe industrial accident probability of happening in 2007 is carried out to science forecast.
The security incident probability of happening measuring and calculating in 2007 of the full special steel in north
Security incident (rising) ≤30 30-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 ≥66
Probability of happening 0.0034 0.0255 0.1014 0.2220 0.2821 0.2192 0.1082 0.0356 0.0026
Power according to results of measuring to safe industrial accident probability of happening in 2007:
The full special steel security incident probability of happening Ordination table in 2007 in north
Indication result shows: under the identical condition of working environment, the generation whole year in 2007 46-50 of Bei Man special steel company plays the possible maximum probability of safe industrial accident, the possible probability that generation 41-45 plays security incident takes second place, the possible probability that generation 51-55 plays security incident takes second place again ... prediction thus: the full special steel in north 46-50 will occur for 2007 and plays safe industrial accident, if trouble free service control is capable, security incident can be controlled at 40 left and right.Show by probability analysis: the full special steel trouble free service arduous task in north in 2007, is also faced with severe challenge simultaneously.
On 01 03rd, 2007
The security incident science forecast in 2007 of the full special steel in north
To the north of full special steel 44 safe industrial accidents in 2006 be that sample has carried out statistical study, three class industrial accidents in 2007 (playing grievous hurt, mechanical wounding, object hits) probability of happening has been carried out to science forecast.
North full special steel security incident in 2006 distributes
Accident January February March April May June July August September October November Dec Add up to
Slight wound 4 1 4 3 1 6 4 5 3 4 5 3 43
Severely injured 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Subtotal 4 1 4 3 1 6 4 5 4 4 5 3 44
The full special steel security incident classification in 2006 in north
Classification Play grievous hurt Mechanical wounding Object hits CO is poisoning Car accident Burn and scald evil Falling accident Explosion accident Other accidents
Accident 11 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 9
Sequence 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
North full special steel security incident generation unit in 2006
Unit Two steel-making One steel-making Steel rolling mill North is emerging Middle letter Manufacturing department Dynamics factory Cold-drawn Casting Skill matter portion Other
Accident 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 4
Sequence 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
North full special steel security incident emphasis in 2006 distributes
Order Unit Have an accident Play grievous hurt Mechanical wounding Object hits Other
1 Two steel-making 6 5 0 0 1
2 One steel-making 5 2 0 0 3
3 Steel rolling mill 5 2 1 0 2
4 Bei Xing company 5 1 1 2 1
5 CITIC 5 0 3 1 1
6 Manufacturing department 5 0 0 0 5
7 Dynamics factory 3 0 1 1 1
8 Other unit 10 1 0 2 3
Add up to ? 44 11 6 6 21
Now taking 23 three classes in 2006, (as sample, there are three class industrial accidents for 2007 to the full special steel in north and calculate in (playing grievous hurt, mechanical wounding, object strike) industrial accident.
The three class industrial accident probability of happening forecasts in 2007 of the full special steel in north
Security incident 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Probability of happening 0.1471 0.2819 0.2702 0.1726 0.0827 0.0317 0.0101 0.0028 0.0009
According to results of measuring, three class industrial accidents in 2007 (playing grievous hurt, mechanical wounding, object strike) probability of happening is sorted according to strong and weak:
The full special steel three class security incident probability of happening evaluation tables in 2007 in north
Forecast result shows: under the identical condition of work production environment, the possible probability that 1-2 plays three class industrial accidents monthly occurs in company is 0.5521, the possible probability that occurs 3 is 0.1726, the possible probability not occurring is 0.1471, the possible probability that 4 above three class industrial accidents occur is 0.1282. deducibility thus: the maximum probability of approximately 20 left and right three class industrial accidents (grievous hurt, mechanical wounding, object hit) occurred in 2007 the full special steel in north, mainly concentrated on two steel-making, a steel-making, steel rolling mill, Bei Xing company, 5 units of CITIC.
On January 3rd, 2007
Embodiment:
1. the sample of a production cycle generation security incident of model, carries out statistical study.
2. utilize " security incident scientific forecasting state-of-the-art technology method and evaluation model " can carry out scientific forecasting.If in management method,, without great change, all hit with the first probability (being maximum probability) security control measure aspect.If trouble free service has major improvement and effective innovation means, the aspect development that the probability that security incident occurs is become better, does a scientific evaluation.If, also likely there are other situations in trouble free service landslide.But on have peak value, under have the lowest point.

Claims (1)

1. comprise: security incident scientific forecasting state-of-the-art technology method invention (security incident scientific forecasting technical method), microcomputer data processing design invention (Excel automatic data processing generates table, provides by E-mail), safety management assessment of levels pattern invention (evaluation model analytical table).
CN201410175958.4A 2014-04-21 2014-04-21 Novel safety accident scientific forecasting technical method and evaluation mode Pending CN104008271A (en)

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CN104008271A true CN104008271A (en) 2014-08-27

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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN104978495A (en) * 2015-07-20 2015-10-14 西安科技大学 Miner mental load evaluation method based on brain electrical detection
CN105046081A (en) * 2015-07-21 2015-11-11 深圳市永兴元科技有限公司 Sampling inspection method and apparatus for fire-fighting places

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CN102880802A (en) * 2012-09-25 2013-01-16 浙江图讯科技有限公司 Fatal danger fountainhead analysis and evaluation method for safety production cloud service platform system facing industrial and mining enterprises
CN103391242A (en) * 2013-07-17 2013-11-13 湖南智源信息网络技术开发有限公司 Table data transmission method

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CN102194056A (en) * 2011-05-05 2011-09-21 中国矿业大学(北京) BN-GIS (Bayesian Network-Geographic Information System) method for evaluating and predicting water inrush danger of coal-seam roof and floor
CN102880802A (en) * 2012-09-25 2013-01-16 浙江图讯科技有限公司 Fatal danger fountainhead analysis and evaluation method for safety production cloud service platform system facing industrial and mining enterprises
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Cited By (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN104978495A (en) * 2015-07-20 2015-10-14 西安科技大学 Miner mental load evaluation method based on brain electrical detection
CN105046081A (en) * 2015-07-21 2015-11-11 深圳市永兴元科技有限公司 Sampling inspection method and apparatus for fire-fighting places
CN105046081B (en) * 2015-07-21 2018-03-16 深圳市永兴元科技股份有限公司 The sampling check method and device in fire-fighting place

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Application publication date: 20140827