CN103093620A - Determination method of motor vehicle traffic conflict number based on conflict traffic flow characteristics - Google Patents
Determination method of motor vehicle traffic conflict number based on conflict traffic flow characteristics Download PDFInfo
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- CN103093620A CN103093620A CN2013100047747A CN201310004774A CN103093620A CN 103093620 A CN103093620 A CN 103093620A CN 2013100047747 A CN2013100047747 A CN 2013100047747A CN 201310004774 A CN201310004774 A CN 201310004774A CN 103093620 A CN103093620 A CN 103093620A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a determination method of motor vehicle traffic conflict number based on conflict traffic flow characteristics. According to the tight correlativity between the conflict traffic flow characteristics and traffic conflict number, traffic conflict survey time period is divided in a layering mode by utilizing the conflict traffic flow characteristics as a mark, stratified sampling is conducted to selection of motor vehicle traffic conflict survey time period of a city crossroad, and therefore survey time of the traffic conflict is shortened and survey accuracy of the traffic conflict number is improved. According to the determination method of the motor vehicle traffic conflict number based on the conflict traffic flow characteristics, flow parameter of the conflict traffic flow is obtained by a traffic flow detecting device, the traffic conflict survey time period is divided in the layering mode by utilizing the conflict traffic flow characteristics as the mark, the defect that current city traffic conflict survey can only depend on experiences in fixed time period is overcome, and accuracy of conflict number survey is improved. The determination method of the motor vehicle traffic conflict number based on the conflict traffic flow characteristics has practical engineering applying value in the aspects of city traffic safety management and evaluation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the traffic safety field, be specifically related to a kind of definite method of the automobile traffic number of collisions based on conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic.
Background technology
The traffic conflict technique is come the safety case of evaluation path means of transportation with the traffic conflict that observes as the Substitute Indexes of traffic hazard, as a kind of indirect safe evaluation method, the traffic conflict technique is rapid due to its data acquisition, evaluation cycle is short, sample size is large etc., and advantage is applied widely.The basis of the traffic conflict technique research is to effectively the obtaining of means of transportation traffic conflict number, and can say, the precision of traffic conflict number investigation has been determined the validity and reliability of traffic conflict research to a great extent.
Yet, conventional traffic Conflict Probe method commonly used mainly relies on investigator's experience to determine the investigation period now, specific practice is rule of thumb to divide peak and non-peak traffic stream mode, then select continuous 1-2 hour to carry out sample survey in the Different Traffic Flows state, and then determine the interior number of collisions of whole control time scope.Conventional traffic Conflict Probe method investigation period design is comparatively fixing, and major defect is rule of thumb to carry out phase identification, so the investigation result precision is difficult to guarantee.Owing to considering investigator's workload, generally do not comprise night-time hours between classic method traffic conflict enumeration district simultaneously.These deficiencies have had a strong impact on accuracy and the science of traffic conflict investigation.
Traffic conflict is that two bursts of traffic flows that have simultaneously right-of-way cross at conflict point in essence, so the traffic conflict number is directly related with the traffic flow flow that initiation conflicts.Therefore, under the condition of obtaining conflict wagon flow flow information, the Changing Pattern that utilizes traffic conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic to seek the traffic conflict number as supplementary just has very strong practical significance, optimize the traffic conflict investigation period in conjunction with layered sampling method simultaneously, can be in the situation that the precision of constant effectively raising traffic conflict investigation of total control time.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: in order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the invention provides a kind of definite method of the automobile traffic number of collisions based on conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic, the method can overcome the deficiency that the investigation of traffic conflict in the past choosing period of time only relies on investigator's experience, improves the precision of traffic conflict number investigation.
Technical scheme: for achieving the above object, definite method of the automobile traffic number of collisions based on conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic of the present invention comprises the following steps:
1) at urban road intersection entrance driveway place, traffic flow parameters detection equipment is set, gather the conflict telecommunication flow information of conflict point to be investigated, comprise conflict traffic flow direction, flow, detected in continuous 24 hours, and obtained the conflict video recording of conflict point to be investigated by near the video monitoring equipment crossing;
2) choose conflict wagon flow flow sum as the layering sign;
3) determine traffic conflict investigation choosing period of time stratified sampling sample total volume: determine that traffic conflict investigation period unit length is 5 ~ 10 minutes, segment length/5 ~ 10 when traffic conflict investigation stratified sampling sample total volume equals to investigate;
4) determine traffic conflict control time scope and the stratified sampling number of plies: if carry out whole day traffic conflict investigation, according to the urban transportation properties of flow, determine that the layering number of plies is 3 layers; If only need to investigate the number of collisions in the 7:00AM – 7:00PM time period on daytime, determine that the layering number of plies is 2 layers;
5) it is overall that the traffic conflict investigation period is divided in layering: after determining the layering number of plies according to step 4), adopt the accumulation square-root method totally to carry out layering to the traffic conflict investigation period and divide;
6) determine that the traffic conflict stratified sampling investigates the sample number of each layer: according to stratified sampling theory, minimum for making traffic conflict count the estimator error, in adopting, graceful apportion design is determined each layer sample number;
7) determine overall number of collisions: each layer sample number that layering result ready-portioned according to step 5) and step 6) are determined, carry out random sampling without peplacement in each layer, the number of collisions in the period is drawn in investigation according to each layer sampling results, determines the conflict sum in interval of whole control time.
As preferably, described traffic conflict investigation period unit length is 5 minutes, segment length/5 when traffic conflict investigation stratified sampling sample total volume equals to investigate.
In described step 5), when adopting the accumulation square-root method that the traffic conflict investigation period is totally carried out layering and divides, comprise with the ascending equidistantly step of grouping of carrying out of layering flag data described packet count 〉=15 group.
Beneficial effect: definite method of the automobile traffic number of collisions based on conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic of the present invention, by adopting the traffic flow checkout equipment to obtain continuous 24 hours telecommunication flow informations as auxiliary, utilize the stratified sampling investigation method to provide foundation for traffic conflict investigation choosing period of time, can improve the precision that the traffic conflict number is determined, and be equally applicable to the night traffic Conflict Probe.Therefore, the present invention has actual engineering application value for traffic conflict investigation choosing period of time provides according to the aspect.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is method flow diagram of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is further described.
As shown in Figure 1, definite method of the automobile traffic number of collisions based on conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic of the present invention comprises the following steps:
1) at urban road intersection entrance driveway place, traffic flow parameters detection equipment is set, gather the conflict telecommunication flow information of conflict point to be investigated, comprise conflict traffic flow direction, flow, requirement can detect in continuous 24 hours, obtained the conflict video recording of conflict point to be investigated by near the video monitoring equipment crossing;
2) select the layering sign of traffic conflict stratified sampling investigation: to conflict wagon flow flow sum (V
1+ V
2) carry out related-coefficient test with number of collisions (TC), find that they are significant correlations, therefore select (V
1+ V
2) be the layering sign;
3) determine traffic conflict investigation choosing period of time stratified sampling sample total volume: in Conflict Probe, sample unit's duration is difficult for too short, otherwise null value can appear in great amount of samples; Sample unit's duration also is difficult for long, otherwise totally several too small, the reliability of sample survey can be affected.By 15 conflict points conflict in continuous 24 hours is on the spot investigated rear discovery with flow, when traffic conflict investigation period unit length is 5 ~ 10 minutes, number of collisions estimated value and actual value error are less, determine that traffic conflict investigation period unit length is 5 ~ 10 minutes, be accustomed to according to factual survey, general round numbers investigation duration namely can be got 5 minutes or 10 minutes conduct investigation period unit lengths.Segment length when therefore traffic conflict investigation stratified sampling sample total volume N equals to investigate (unit minute)/5 ~ 10;
4) determine traffic conflict control time scope and the stratified sampling number of plies: if carry out whole day traffic conflict investigation, according to the urban transportation properties of flow, determine that the layering number of plies is 3 layers; If only need to investigate the number of collisions in (the 7:00AM – 7:00PM) time period on daytime, determine that the layering number of plies is 2 layers;
5) it is overall that the traffic conflict investigation period is divided in layering: after determining the layering number of plies according to step 4), according to carrying out layering with the closely-related traffic flow character value of conflicting of traffic conflict number, by can the conflict population distribution of traffic flow character value of traffic flow checkout facility, what need here to determine is exactly minute point value between each layer.Adopt the accumulation square-root method equidistantly to divide into groups the layering flag data is ascending, general warranty packet count 〉=15 group, the frequency distribution table (the cumulative distribution frequency that comprises the layering flag data) that then counts every component layers flag data is as shown in table 1.
Table 1 layering sign data frequency distribution table
After obtaining layering sign data frequency accumulation square root, can be calculated by following formula the layering sign data frequency accumulation square root of the theoretical optimum branch between i layer and i+1 layer, and then obtain corresponding actual branch by the most approaching group of searching and the layering sign data frequency accumulation square root of theoretical optimum branch.
Wherein, fi, the layering sign data frequency accumulation square root of the theoretical optimum branch between i layer and i+1 layer;
Layering sign data frequency accumulation square root; L is the layering number of plies.
6) determine that the traffic conflict stratified sampling investigates the sample number of each layer: according to stratified sampling theory, minimum for making traffic conflict count the estimator error, in adopting, graceful apportion design is calculated each layer sample number, and formula is as follows:
Wherein, n
iBe i layer sample size, N
iBe i layer population size, σ
iBe the standard deviation of i layer layering sign, n is each layer sample size sum;
7) determine overall number of collisions: each layer sample number that layering result ready-portioned according to step 5) and step 6) are determined, carry out random sampling without peplacement in each layer, obtain the mean value of the estimator of each layer traffic conflict number, the estimated value of the number of collisions in then available following formula calculates between whole enumeration district:
Wherein, Y is number of collisions estimated value interior between whole traffic conflict enumeration district, N
iBe i layer population size, y
iBe the estimator mean value of i layer traffic conflict number.
Below adopt specific embodiment to further illustrate the specific implementation process of method of the present invention.
1) propose in the present embodiment with conflict traffic flow flow sum (V
1+ V
2) as the layering sign of stratified sampling, in order to verify number of collisions and (V
1+ V
2) correlativity, to five crossings totally 15 conflict points carry out on-site inspection, obtain related coefficient such as table 2.
Table 2 number of collisions and correlative flow correlation coefficient charts
Carry out significance test according to the related coefficient in test of significance of coefficient of correlation table his-and-hers watches 2, get level of significance 0.10, through check, in table 1, all facies relationship number averages are greater than the relevant desired minimum of conspicuousness, i.e. conflict point number of collisions and traffic characteristic parameter and the (V of conflicting
1+ V
2) be significant correlation.
2) turn left (i.e. 1 left 2 left sides) conflict points as example explanation specific implementation process take continuous heavy rain road-China Citic Bank's 1 entrance driveway left-hand rotation and 2 entrance driveway, obtain the conflict traffic flow flow information of this conflict point by the video recording investigation method, and can obtain the conflict video recording for the treatment of in the control time section, the investigation period is daytime (7:00AM – 7:00PM).
3) know continuous heavy rain 1 left side 2 left conflict point number of collisions and the traffic characteristic parameter (V that conflicts of road-China Citic Bank by step 1
1+ V
2) be significant correlation, so get 1 left vehicle flowrate and 2 left vehicle flowrate sum (V
1+ V
2) be the layering sign.
4) because traditional Conflict Probe method look-see duration is 3 hours, for convenience of Comparative Survey precision as a result, the left 2 left conflict points of continuous heavy rain road-China Citic Bank 1 are carried out the investigation that total duration is 3 hours (180 minutes), traffic conflict investigation period unit length is got 5 minutes, so traffic conflict investigation stratified sampling sample total volume=180/5=36.
5) be daytime (7:00AM – 7:00PM) to the investigation period of continuous heavy rain road-China Citic Bank 1 left 2 left conflict points, determine that therefore the layering number of plies is 2 layers.
6) utilize layering sign (V
1+ V
2) period is investigated in traffic conflict totally be divided into 2 layers.Utilize the video recording investigation to obtain the continuous heavy rain 1 left 2 left conflict point (V of road-China Citic Bank
1+ V
2) the population distribution value, adopt the accumulation square-root method to calculate (V
1+ V
2) the accumulation square root sum of distribution frequency is 51.864, the accumulation square root that therefore obtains the optimum branch of ground floor and the second layer is 25.932, by seeking and 25.932 the most approaching (V
1+ V
2) to obtain corresponding actual branch be 35 to class value.Take 35 as separation, with (V
1+ V
2) value is less than or equal to 35 the ground floor that is divided into, as can be known first layer by layer in 71, total sample; With (V
1+ V
2) value is greater than 35 the second layer that is divided into, as can be known second layer by layer in 73, total sample.Calculate afterwards ground floor (V
1+ V
2) standard deviation of value is 5.448; The second layer (V
1+ V
2) standard deviation of value is 5.054.
7) determine each layer sample number.The ground floor sample number
Second layer sample number
8) carrying out respectively sample size in ground floor and the second layer is 18 random sampling without replacement, and obtaining ground floor traffic conflict, to count estimator mean value be 0.778; It is 1.151 that estimator mean value is counted in second layer traffic conflict.Therefore the total traffic conflict number of whole investigation period (7:00AM – 7:00PM) is defined as 71*0.77+8*731.=15.
In order to reflect intuitively that the present invention compares the advantage of conventional traffic Conflict Probe period choosing method, to five crossings totally ten five conflict points the period (7:00AM – 7:00PM) has been carried out the conflict video recording of continuous 12 hours by day, actual traffic stream and the number of collisions data of above-mentioned conflict point have been obtained, then utilizing respectively method that classic method and the present invention propose to investigate duration to each conflict point is the traffic conflict sample survey of 3 hours, then determine respectively overall number of collisions, the AME of two kinds of method investigation results is as shown in table 3.
Table 3 layered sampling method and classic method are estimated the contrast of number of collisions error
| The layered sampling method number of collisions is estimated average error | The classic method number of collisions is estimated average error |
| 8.21 | 13.39 |
Result shows, method of the present invention determines that the error of number of collisions determines the error of number of collisions well below classic method, and as seen, the stratified sampling investigation method that the present invention proposes can improve the definite precision of traffic conflict number.
To sum up, the present invention is according to the traffic characteristic of conflict traffic flow and the relation that is closely related between the traffic conflict number, take conflict traffic flow traffic characteristic as sign, the traffic conflict investigation period being carried out layering divides, the urban intersection automobile traffic Conflict Probe period is chosen carried out stratified sampling, thus the investigation accuracy of the control time of minimizing traffic conflict, raising traffic conflict number.The present invention utilizes the traffic flow checkout equipment to obtain the flow parameter of conflict traffic flow, carry out the traffic conflict stratified sampling of investigation period take conflict traffic flow character parameter as sign, overcome the deficiency that existing urban transportation Conflict Probe can only carry out in fixing period according to experience, can improve the number of collisions investigation precision.Definite method based on the automobile traffic number of collisions of conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic has actual engineering application value in the urban road traffic safety management aspect evaluation.
The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention; be noted that for those skilled in the art; under the prerequisite that does not break away from the principle of the invention, can also make some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications also should be considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. definite method based on the automobile traffic number of collisions of conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic is characterized in that comprising the following steps:
1) at urban road intersection entrance driveway place, traffic flow parameters detection equipment is set, gather the conflict telecommunication flow information of conflict point to be investigated, comprise conflict traffic flow direction, flow, detected in continuous 24 hours, and obtained the conflict video recording of conflict point to be investigated by near the video monitoring equipment crossing;
2) choose conflict wagon flow flow sum as the layering sign;
3) determine traffic conflict investigation choosing period of time stratified sampling sample total volume: determine that traffic conflict investigation period unit length is 5 ~ 10 minutes, segment length/5 ~ 10 when traffic conflict investigation stratified sampling sample total volume equals to investigate;
4) determine traffic conflict control time scope and the stratified sampling number of plies: if carry out whole day traffic conflict investigation, according to the urban transportation properties of flow, determine that the layering number of plies is 3 layers; If only need to investigate the number of collisions in the 7:00AM – 7:00PM time period on daytime, determine that the layering number of plies is 2 layers;
5) it is overall that the traffic conflict investigation period is divided in layering: after determining the layering number of plies according to step 4), adopt the accumulation square-root method totally to carry out layering to the traffic conflict investigation period and divide;
6) determine that the traffic conflict stratified sampling investigates the sample number of each layer: according to stratified sampling theory, minimum for making traffic conflict count the estimator error, in adopting, graceful apportion design is determined each layer sample number;
7) determine overall number of collisions: each layer sample number that layering result ready-portioned according to step 5) and step 6) are determined, carry out random sampling without peplacement in each layer, the number of collisions in the period is drawn in investigation according to each layer sampling results, determines the conflict sum in interval of whole control time.
2. definite method of the automobile traffic number of collisions based on conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: described traffic conflict investigation period unit length is 5 minutes, segment length/5 when traffic conflict investigation stratified sampling sample total volume equals to investigate.
3. definite method of the automobile traffic number of collisions based on conflict wagon flow traffic characteristic according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: in described step 5), when adopting the accumulation square-root method totally to carry out the layering division to the traffic conflict investigation period, comprise with the ascending equidistantly step of grouping of carrying out of layering flag data described packet count 〉=15 group.
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| CN109087534A (en) * | 2018-10-09 | 2018-12-25 | 王业宝 | A kind of traffic conflict detection method based on vehicle driving trace |
| CN109118773A (en) * | 2018-09-30 | 2019-01-01 | 中交第公路勘察设计研究院有限公司 | A kind of traffic accidents methods of risk assessment |
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103971519A (en) * | 2014-04-04 | 2014-08-06 | 东南大学 | System and method of using traffic conflicts for judging accident-prone sections |
| CN109118773A (en) * | 2018-09-30 | 2019-01-01 | 中交第公路勘察设计研究院有限公司 | A kind of traffic accidents methods of risk assessment |
| CN109118773B (en) * | 2018-09-30 | 2019-10-01 | 中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司 | A kind of traffic accidents methods of risk assessment |
| CN109087534A (en) * | 2018-10-09 | 2018-12-25 | 王业宝 | A kind of traffic conflict detection method based on vehicle driving trace |
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